RLI "The Amhara Insurgency: External Influences and the Evolving Geopolitical Landscape in Ethiopia"
The Amhara Insurgency: External Influences and the Evolving Geopolitical Landscape in Ethiopia
November 11, 2024
"The conflict in Amhara poses a serious threat to Ethiopia’s fragile stability. It not only challenges the federal government’s authority but also risks deepening ethnic divisions, which could have far-reaching implications for the country’s political future. If not addressed through meaningful dialogue and reforms, the conflict could escalate into a broader crisis, jeopardizing Ethiopia’s unity and security.
The latest fighting between Ethiopian National Defense Forces and the Fano militia, which has left several people dead, began after a decision by the army and the Amhara regional government to continue “law enforcement operations” in the area until “peace is restored”.
The Amhara fighting began in 2023 when the Ethiopian army announced a plan to dissolve the regional forces to integrate them into the army. The plan was rejected through mass protests that ultimately led to the ongoing war.
The Amhara Region of Ethiopia has recently witnessed a significant escalation in violence and unrest. The conflict primarily involves clashes between the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Fano militia, an Amhara nationalist group. This tension has been simmering since early 2023, when the Ethiopian federal government announced plans to dismantle regional special forces, including the Amhara’s own security units, as part of an effort to centralize military control. The Amhara community, fearing a loss of regional autonomy and vulnerability to external threats, particularly from the neighboring Tigray Region, resisted these moves.
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The situation intensified in July 2024, when Fano militias launched an offensive across various parts of the Amhara Region, seizing control of several strategic areas. This conflict has been marked by heavy fighting in cities like Gondar, Debre Birhan, and Woldia, as well as rural zones along key highways. The Ethiopian government has responded with a large-scale military operation, including airstrikes and ground offensives, to regain control over the contested areas. Despite these efforts, the government forces have struggled to fully suppress the Fano insurgency, leading to ongoing instability in the region.
The roots of this conflict can be traced back to the Tigray War (2020-2022), where Amhara militias, including Fano, were instrumental in supporting the federal government against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, the subsequent peace agreement left unresolved territorial disputes and discontent among the Amhara, who felt sidelined by the government’s reconciliation with Tigray. The Amhara militias view the disarmament as a betrayal, suspecting it could leave their region vulnerable to Tigray’s territorial claims, particularly in the contested areas of Wolkait and Raya.
The current conflict has had severe humanitarian implications, with reports of civilian casualties, displacement, and a worsening security environment. The Ethiopian government’s heavy-handed military response, including curfews and internet blackouts, has further complicated efforts to stabilize the region. As the situation remains volatile, there are concerns about broader implications for Ethiopia’s national stability, especially given the country’s diverse ethnic and political landscape.
The ongoing conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region could significantly reshape the country’s political landscape, exacerbating existing ethnic tensions and destabilizing the federal government’s authority:
1. Erosion of Federal Authority
The Amhara conflict, driven by the Fano militia’s resistance to the federal government’s disarmament policy, challenges Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s attempts to centralize power. The government’s struggle to contain the Fano insurgency not only undermines its authority but also reveals cracks in Ethiopia’s federal structure, which grants significant autonomy to its ethnically defined regions. If the federal government fails to quell the unrest, it could embolden other regions, such as Oromia and Sidama, to resist central control, potentially leading to a broader national crisis.
The conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region is influenced by various external factors, involving regional powers and international actors who have vested interests in Ethiopia’s stability. These influences shape the conflict dynamics, adding layers of complexity to the internal strife.
1. Eritrea’s Involvement
Eritrea, a key player in the Horn of Africa, has had a significant impact on Ethiopian affairs, particularly in relation to the Amhara conflict. During the Tigray War (2020-2022), Eritrean forces aligned with Ethiopia’s federal government against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, the Eritrean government’s position regarding the Amhara insurgency is less clear. There are unconfirmed reports suggesting that Eritrea might be covertly supporting elements within the Amhara militia, particularly Fano, as a way to counterbalance Tigrayan influence and keep Ethiopia’s central government destabilized. This strategy could serve Eritrea’s interest in maintaining regional dominance and limiting Ethiopia’s resurgence as a unified power.
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2. Sudan’s Border Disputes
Sudan’s relationship with Ethiopia has been strained due to border disputes, especially around the contested al-Fashaga region. The conflict in Amhara has provided Sudan with an opportunity to assert claims over this fertile border area. The Sudanese military has reportedly increased its presence along the border, exploiting Ethiopia’s internal turmoil. Moreover, there are concerns that Sudan might be providing tacit support to the Fano militia to weaken the Ethiopian central government’s control over the region, thereby securing its territorial ambitions.
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3. Egypt’s Strategic Interests
Egypt has historically been concerned about Ethiopia’s plans to fill and operate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. The Amhara conflict indirectly benefits Egypt by diverting Ethiopia’s attention and resources away from the dam dispute. While there is no direct evidence of Egypt’s involvement in the Amhara insurgency, the instability in Ethiopia aligns with Egypt’s strategic interest in delaying the dam’s operations. Some analysts suggest that Egypt might be covertly supporting opposition groups within Ethiopia to weaken Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, though this remains speculative.
4. Gulf States and Regional Rivalries
The Gulf States, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, have been heavily involved in the Horn of Africa, seeking to expand their influence. The UAE has previously provided military support to the Ethiopian government during the Tigray War, using drones to target Tigrayan forces. However, as the Amhara conflict unfolds, the Gulf States are likely to adopt a more cautious approach, balancing their support between the federal government and other regional actors to protect their economic and security interests in the region.
5. Western Influence and Humanitarian Concerns
The United States and the European Union have been vocal about human rights abuses in Ethiopia, particularly during the Tigray conflict. They have called for de-escalation and dialogue in the Amhara Region, warning that continued violence could trigger further sanctions and affect international aid. The Western focus on human rights puts pressure on the Ethiopian government to seek a negotiated settlement, although their influence has been somewhat limited due to Ethiopia’s strategic pivot towards non-Western allies like China and Russia.
External actors are playing a complex, often indirect role in the Amhara conflict, driven by their strategic interests in the Horn of Africa. The involvement of neighboring countries like Eritrea and Sudan, along with broader geopolitical interests from Egypt, the Gulf States, and Western powers, has the potential to prolong the conflict and complicate efforts towards a peaceful resolution. Ethiopia’s internal strife is thus not only a domestic issue but also a focal point for regional power struggles, which could destabilize the broader Horn of Africa region.
2. Strengthening of Amhara Nationalism
The conflict has fueled Amhara nationalism, with the Fano militia and local leaders portraying the federal government’s disarmament efforts as an attack on Amhara autonomy and security. The Amhara people are concerned about losing their regional special forces, especially given historical tensions with neighboring Tigray over disputed territories like Wolkait and Raya. The heightened sense of grievance among the Amhara could lead to a resurgence of ethno-nationalist politics, which might push the regional government to adopt a more confrontational stance against Addis Ababa.
3. Impact on National Unity and Ethnic Relations
Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism has long been a source of tension, and the Amhara conflict could deepen divisions between the country’s major ethnic groups. The Amhara community’s sense of betrayal after the peace deal with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has already strained relations between the Amhara and Tigrayan populations. The federal government’s heavy-handed military response could also alienate the Amhara, further eroding trust in the central government and fostering resentment among other ethnic groups who might fear similar treatment.
4. Potential for Widening Insurgency
If the conflict in Amhara intensifies, it could draw in other insurgent groups like the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has already been active in Oromia against the federal government. The convergence of multiple regional insurgencies could plunge Ethiopia into a multi-front conflict, overwhelming the government’s capacity to maintain stability. This scenario could lead to a broader civil conflict reminiscent of the Tigray War, which had devastating humanitarian and economic consequences.
5. Political Ramifications for Abiy Ahmed
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who came to power with promises of unity and reform, faces increasing pressure as ethnic conflicts flare up across the country. The Amhara conflict undermines his narrative of peace and reconciliation, potentially eroding his support base. Additionally, it complicates his efforts to present Ethiopia as a stable partner in the Horn of Africa, which could impact foreign relations and international aid, especially given the country’s ongoing economic challenges.
6. Humanitarian and Economic Consequences
The conflict in Amhara has already resulted in significant displacement and civilian casualties, further straining Ethiopia’s humanitarian resources. Prolonged unrest in one of Ethiopia’s most populous and economically vital regions could disrupt agricultural production, trade, and investment, exacerbating the country’s economic woes. A deteriorating economic situation could, in turn, fuel more unrest, creating a vicious cycle of instability."
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